底特律 — The threat from President Donald Trump to tax Mexican-made cars sold in the U.S. 会让整个行业陷入混乱吗, 分析人士说,, forcing some uncomfortable choices: Raise car prices or swallow the cost. 停止在美国销售墨西哥制造的汽车.S. 但有失去客户的风险. 将生产转移到美国.S. 但赚的钱更少.

“I don’t think the 汽车行业 would turn up its feet and die, but it would be a terrible shock. It would create mayhem with their profitability,玛丽娜·惠特曼说, a business professor at the University of 密歇根州igan and a former vice president at General Motors Co.

Trump hosted a breakfast meeting early Tuesday with the heads of General Motors, Ford Motor Co. 菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车公司. Before the meeting, Trump tweeted that he wants “new plants to be built here for cars sold here.” He has warned of a “substantial border tax” on companies that move manufacturing out of the country and promised tax advantages to those that produce domestically.

Automakers expressed optimism after the meeting.

“I think as an industry we’re excited about working together with the president and his administration on tax policies, on regulation and on trade to really create a renaissance in American manufacturing,福特首席执行官马克·菲尔兹(Mark Fields)在会后表示.

但在13美元收盘后.S. assembly plants during the recession to deal with excess capacity, 底特律 automakers aren’t eager to open new ones, 尤其是现在.S. sales of new vehicles are slowing after reaching record levels. The three automakers operate 27 assembly plants in the U.S. 墨西哥有7个.

二十多年了, 墨西哥一直是汽车工业的绿洲, offering cheap labor and access to dozens of markets through free-trade deals. Whitman says 底特律 automakers can’t build small cars profitably in the U.S., where a unionized autoworker can make $58 an hour in wages and benefits. By comparison, a Mexican auto assembly worker makes a little more than $8.

That helps to explain why automakers have announced $24 billion in Mexican investments over the last six years, according to the Center for 汽车 Research, 密歇根州的智囊团. 总共50美元.5 billion in vehicles and $51 billion in auto parts were shipped to the U.S. 2015年，美国从墨西哥撤出.S. 政府数据显示.

Mexico’s auto sector, while still smaller than the U.S.美国经济正以更快的速度增长. Mexico’s vehicle production capacity is expected to rise 49% to 5.5 million vehicles by 2023, according to LMC 汽车, a forecasting firm. U.S. 运力将增长13%至14%.同期的汽车销量为200万辆.

但特朗普可能会改变这一点. 在针对汽车行业的频繁推文中, he has proposed both a 35% 关税 on Mexican-made imports and a “border tax,该法案将对公司的进口产品征税. That’s forcing automakers to consider a number of options.

Abandoning Mexico and moving production to the U.S., as Trump demands, would cost the industry billions and scuttle plans that are years in the making. Audi, 例如, just opened a plant in Mexico that it decided to build five years ago.

“It’s very difficult to turn on your heels quickly in the 汽车行业,劳里·哈伯-费莱克斯说, a manufacturing consultant and president of Harbour Results Inc.

以生产为中心

In early January, Ford made the surprise announcement that it would halt construction of a $1.6 billion plant in Mexico slated to build the compact Focus. It also announced plans to invest $700 million of that savings into a 密歇根州igan plant where it will make new electric and autonomous cars.

福特表示，小型车销量下滑, 不是特朗普, 影响了墨西哥工厂的决定, and the company will still make the Focus in Mexico at a different plant. But Ford CEO Mark Fields noted that Trump’s promise to lower corporate taxes and ease regulations would make it more attractive to do business in the U.S. Fields also said he’s not worried about the possibility of 关税s

其他人则显得更加紧张. 他在底特律汽车展上对记者说, Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne said his company might withdraw from Mexico altogether if 关税s got too high.

“Those plants were designed, built and purposed at a time when NAFTA was alive and well,” he said. “It’s one of the perils associated with the business that we run.”

Trump can’t place 关税s on companies or groups of companies without congressional approval, 加里·赫夫鲍尔说, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics. But he could fashion 关税s that hurt some companies more than others by, 例如, picking and choosing from the dozens of import classifications for vehicles and parts.

其他地方出售

Automakers could stop selling some Mexican-made cars in the U.S. 总之，这会让他们失去客户. 他们也可以尝试在其他地方出售汽车.

Mexico has free trade agreements covering 45 countries, 包括与欧盟的协议, 日本和南美洲. 相比之下，美国经济增长放缓.S. 与20个国家有协议.

日产汽车公司., the biggest producer in Mexico, made more than 823,000 vehicles in the country in 2015. 其中46%被运往美国.S., but another 17% went to other countries, including Canada and Saudi Arabia. 日产汽车可能会调整这些数字.S. 关税是令人望而却步的.

“所有汽车制造商都将适应新规定, 如果有新的规则,” Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said this month in 底特律.